Monday, November 24, 2014

Thanksgiving Potential Coastal Snowstorm

It looks like the Northeast will see a pretty white Thanksgiving this year, as a coastal storm will lay down plowable snowfall.

Instant Weather Maps
The image above shows accumulated snowfall from the GFS model, valid over the next five days. We see a swath of snowfall across the Northeast region, primarily coastal areas, as the storm will be located relatively offshore, restricting snowfall. This forecast lays down a general 3-5" of snow for many on the coast, with spots of 6" and slightly above for a handful of areas. Given that this is November, warm air immediately near the coast will be acting to put a damper on any intense snow activities, something that will have to wait until later in the season.

Instant Weather Maps
The NAM model, a shorter-range forecast, puts down a similar 3-5" swath of snow, but enhances the coastal areas with 6-8" of snow, as the pink area shows. Far southeastern parts of Maine even look to see a shot at near 10" of snowfall, if not a bit more.

Peak storm time looks to be on November 26th, intensifying in New England that evening. Regardless of how this storm ends up, millions in the East US will have to contend with a very messy Thanksgiving commute.